Is everyone ready for their repeat of Week 17 in the NFL? That’s certainly what it feels like, with the Eagles returning to Arlington to take on the Cowboys and the Packers returning to Glendale to face the Cardinals. At least the Bengals and Jets are giving us some variety by switching from New York to the Queen City for their rematch. The Patriots and Ravens are the only original match up of Wildcard Weekend, but when we look again, it’s still nothing new.
The Patriots beat the Ravens 27-21 at Gillette Stadium in Week 4. This fact would be surprising if you just looked at the box score. Joe Flacco threw two touchdown passes for the Ravens while Tom Brady had just one for the Pats. Ray Rice ran for 103 yards for the Ravens on his own while the Patriots had just 85 rushing yards as a team. Looking at that, one would think that the Ravens dominated this game and would have won by at least a touchdown. Baltimore did lose the turnover battle, but only 2-to-1, so it wasn’t that big of a difference. The Ravens simply didn’t get it done in the fourth quarter, getting stopped on fourth down twice. This game will likely come down to the wire again, but I’ll take the Ravens this time. Flacco’s got nearly two years of experience now and the Patriots will be without Wes Welker, one of the cornerstones of the New England offense. Sure, the Pats could get a running game going, but against Baltimore’s defense, I’d say that’s unlikely at best. They still have Terrell Suggs. They still have Ray Lewis, and Lewis hasn’t dropped off much despite his age. They can stop the run and they’ll stop the Patriots run on Sunday.
My pick: Ravens 23 Patriots 17
The other Sunday game is between the Packers and Cardinals. Arizona got shellacked at home last week, but that was with Kurt Warner on the bench. Therefore, I believe this game will be much closer. The Cards must establish a running game early if they want to have a chance. Sure, they’re at home, but the Packers are on fire. Their only loss in their past eight games was to the Steelers on a touchdown as time expired. It was a ridiculous throw, a ridiculous catch, and it was made against an inexperienced cornerback.
Yeah, it was awesome, especially since it was made in the corner of the endzone in which my buddy Dave and I were sitting, but it was a bit fluky. I’ll admit that. Seven wins and one fluky loss in eight games is quite a tear. In the beginning of the season, Green Bay’s problem was that they couldn’t protect Aaron Rodgers. Since Week 11, he’s been sacked nine times and has only been sacked multiple times in two of the Packers’ past seven games. With the improved blocking up front, Rodgers has been allowed to come into his own as a second-year starter. He’s thrown for over 200 yards in six of those last seven games and has even gone over 300 yards three times. With that said, I’m taking the Packers.
My pick: Packers 31 Cardinals 23
The playoff opener will be a cold one. It’s going to be 24 degrees at kickoff, feel like 11 degrees, and it’s supposed to snow as well. It won’t help that Paul Brown Stadium is a huge wind tunnel with the stands being lower on both endzones than on the sidelines. Both teams rely on running the ball, which is the type of style that is ideal in this type of environment. If either team really gets their ground game going, they’ll certainly have the advantage. However, the wild card will be the passing game, which has to favor the Bengals. They have a seasoned quarterback in Carson Palmer compared to the Jets’ Mark Sanchez, a rookie qb who will be playing his first playoff game on the road. As long as Kimo Von Oelhoffen isn’t around, Palmer should be just fine. The Bengals didn’t care about last week’s game. The Jets haven’t played a full game against first string NFL players since Week 15 when they played the Atlanta Falcons at the Meadowlands. The Jets lost that game. If you don’t count the Colts game (which I don’t, since the Jets were losing when Indy pulled their starters), the Jets only have one win this year on the road against a team with a winning record. That was against the Houston Texans. In Week 1. The Texans didn’t get on a roll until Week 6 when they won three straight and again in Week 14 win they finished the year with four straight wins. The Jets didn’t get on a roll until they started playing patsies and backups.
My pick: Bengals 27 Jets 17
The primetime game of the week isn’t just a rematch, but a third meeting between the Eagles and Cowboys. Dallas won both regular season meetings, which gave them the tiebreaker and thus the NFC East title. That’s why Jerry Jones will get at least 11 home games in his new stadium this year (including the preseason ripoff games, of course). The Eagles are more banged up than the Cowboys and their confidence had to take a hit last week as well with the game being a route. Brian Westbrook led the team in rushing with 17 yards. A similar performance will lead to similar results. The Eagles won’t score much, if at all. They’ll lose badly. And Mark Cuban will throw another fit if the Cowboys game is on during a Mavs game. Although with both teams being on the road next weekend, he’ll probably take it down a notch. Look for Tony Romo and Miles Austin to kick it up a notch as the ‘Boys get their first playoff win since 1996.
My pick: Cowboys 35 Eagles 27
As for the rest of the playoff teams, I don’t see anyone beating the Colts. Yes, they lost their last two games after a 14-0 start, but they could have and probably would have won both games if they had left their starters in. Peyton Manning picked up his record fourth MVP on Saturday, passing Brett Favre. I believe he’ll pass Favre in Super Bowl wins this year too by getting his second. The Chargers just don’t impress me enough to make me think they can win in Indy, although I do think that they’ll get there. As for the NFC, the Saints have had some questions lately. I don’t put any stock in their Week 17 loss without many key players in the game, including the second place finisher for the league MVP, quarterback Drew Brees. However, losing Tampa Bay isn’t what you would like to see as winning that could’ve still clinched home field advantage for the Saints, but instead they backed into it with yet another Minnesota loss. I think the Saints can turn it on and that they will be really difficult to beat in the Superdome, but Dallas beat them there already and I can see it happening again with as hot as the Cowboys have been. I’m still going with a boring scenario of both 1 seeds winning their respective conferences and the Colts winning a fairly high scoring game.
